Not adjusted for splits or dividends. Gaps connect available observations.
Daily closing price data
Date
Close (USD)
Sep 21, 2026
$501.61
Sep 18, 2026
$493.78
Sep 17, 2026
$497.75
Sep 16, 2026
$490.30
Sep 16, 2026
$490.30
Sep 15, 2026
$497.12
Sep 15, 2026
$496.91
Sep 14, 2026
$505.41
Sep 14, 2026
$505.41
Sep 11, 2026
$495.63
Sep 11, 2026
$495.63
Sep 10, 2026
$492.44
Sep 10, 2026
$492.44
Sep 09, 2026
$491.65
Sep 09, 2026
$491.65
Sep 08, 2026
$493.95
Sep 08, 2026
$493.95
Sep 04, 2026
$499.70
Sep 03, 2026
$510.12
Sep 02, 2026
$496.82
Sep 02, 2026
$496.82
Sep 01, 2026
$501.02
Sep 01, 2026
$501.02
Aug 31, 2026
$507.29
Aug 31, 2026
$507.29
Aug 28, 2026
$513.53
Aug 28, 2026
$513.52
Aug 27, 2026
$505.06
Aug 27, 2026
$504.91
Aug 26, 2026
$496.37
Aug 26, 2026
$496.17
Aug 25, 2026
$491.71
Aug 25, 2026
$491.71
Aug 24, 2026
$487.31
Aug 24, 2026
$487.31
Aug 21, 2026
$483.24
Aug 21, 2026
$483.24
Aug 20, 2026
$481.15
Aug 20, 2026
$481.15
Aug 19, 2026
$484.31
Aug 19, 2026
$484.31
Aug 18, 2026
$481.63
Aug 18, 2026
$481.63
Aug 17, 2026
$480.35
Aug 17, 2026
$480.35
Aug 14, 2026
$495.40
Aug 14, 2026
$495.40
Aug 13, 2026
$496.88
Aug 12, 2026
$492.43
Aug 11, 2026
$503.81
Aug 10, 2026
$506.06
Aug 07, 2026
$499.99
Aug 06, 2026
$499.86
Aug 05, 2026
$487.46
Aug 05, 2026
$490.65
Aug 04, 2026
$492.81
Aug 04, 2026
$492.81
Aug 03, 2026
$487.65
Aug 03, 2026
$487.65
Jul 31, 2026
$464.72
Jul 31, 2026
$464.72
Jul 30, 2026
$451.10
Jul 30, 2026
$451.10
Jul 29, 2026
$390.54
Jul 29, 2026
$390.54
THE INVESTMENT STORY
What is driving the conversation?
AI synthesis
Sep 21, 2026, 20:31 UTC
Microsoft (MSFT) maintains strong fundamental momentum driven by resilient enterprise demand, robust Azure expansion, and rapid commercial monetization of Copilot services. However, the broader market narrative presents a tug-of-war between high-tier operational execution and massive capital expenditure. Operating cash flow reached $182.9B against capex of $115.9B in fiscal 2026, leading to a temporary compression in free cash flow margins as infrastructure investments scale. The quantitative model yields a deterministic Neutral score of 64.95 (57% confidence), reflecting balance-sheet strength, low debt leverage, and technical support above the 200-day trend offset by mixed institutional sentiment (11 increases vs. 15 decreases in 13F filings), valuation multiples that demand sustained AI ROI, and provisional macro inputs.
Generated market interpretation; verify claims and events against original reporting.
Questions to pressure-test the thesis
How do cloud growth, capital spending and cash generation support the valuation assumptions?
What evidence would change the growth or margin assumptions?
Do earnings and free cash flow tell the same story?
FROM THESIS TO SETUP
Strategies worth investigating.
Portfolio fit unchecked
Selected by the saved shared assessment. These previews explain the setup; review current quotes and personal suitability in the app.
Long term
Stock ownership
Equity structure with medium risk.
Main risk
Capital is exposed to a substantial decline in the shares.
What would weaken the idea?
Weaker business fundamentals can invalidate the ownership thesis.
Assessed Sep 21, 2026, 20:51 UTC Evaluated expiry Jun 17, 2027
These ratios describe the saved financial and market inputs. A lower multiple alone does not establish that a stock is undervalued.
MSFT saved valuation metrics
Measure
Saved value
Trailing P/E
27.51x
Price / sales
11.20x
Price / book
8.40x
Price / free cash flowAnnual cash flow
55.50x
Free cash flow yieldAnnual cash flow
1.80%
EV / revenue
11.26x
Input dates, sources & methodology
Financial source
Recorded financial data
Financial inputs dated
Jul 29, 2026
Market inputs dated
Sep 21, 2026, 19:55 UTC
Model evidence coverage
70.0% Input coverage, not probability of success
Valuation model / version
general · V1.4
Ratios are Fidusor calculations or saved provider inputs. The market-data provider is not separately identified in this snapshot. Only available measures are shown; this is not a complete valuation or a fair-value target.
02 / WHAT CHANGED
Follow the evidence over time.
Compared with the saved observation from Sep 21, 2026, 16:00 UTC. These are changes in recorded ratios, not explanations of a price move.
Price / sales11.05x → 11.20x
Price / book8.29x → 8.40x
Price / free cash flow54.72x → 55.50x
Free cash flow yield1.83% → 1.80%
EV / revenue11.10x → 11.26x
03 / FILING ACTIVITY
Read what was actually reported.
Recent source-linked records in Fidusor's tracked universe. Disclosures describe earlier activity and may not reflect current holdings or intent.
Insider disclosures
Insider filings may include purchases, sales, grants and exercises. Read the transaction details before drawing a conclusion.
No qualifying source-linked records are available in the recent saved coverage. This does not mean no activity occurred.
Reported institutional position changes
13F changes compare quarter-end positions. The period shown is not a trade execution date. Reports omit short positions and do not establish real-time buying.
Fidusor