FidusorINTELLIGENCE

Semiconductors NVDA

NVIDIAStock research

$226.93USD+2.09% session

Latest saved quote · Sep 21, 2026, 21:06 UTC

How sensitive is valuation to AI infrastructure spending, margins and customer concentration?

Open full NVDA research →

PRICE HISTORY

Daily closes · USD
High $230.36Low $190.01
NVDA daily closing pricesJul 29, 2026 to Sep 21, 2026. Raw closing prices, not adjusted for splits or dividends. Data table below.
Jul 29, 2026Sep 21, 2026
Raw closes · View data

Not adjusted for splits or dividends. Gaps connect available observations.

Daily closing price data
DateClose (USD)
Sep 21, 2026$227.38
Sep 18, 2026$222.27
Sep 17, 2026$219.34
Sep 16, 2026$213.90
Sep 16, 2026$213.90
Sep 15, 2026$212.17
Sep 15, 2026$212.17
Sep 14, 2026$210.96
Sep 14, 2026$210.96
Sep 11, 2026$218.29
Sep 11, 2026$218.29
Sep 10, 2026$218.36
Sep 10, 2026$218.36
Sep 09, 2026$223.67
Sep 09, 2026$223.67
Sep 08, 2026$225.73
Sep 08, 2026$225.73
Sep 04, 2026$230.36
Sep 03, 2026$228.45
Sep 02, 2026$224.41
Sep 02, 2026$224.41
Sep 01, 2026$217.44
Sep 01, 2026$217.44
Aug 31, 2026$220.78
Aug 31, 2026$220.50
Aug 28, 2026$217.55
Aug 28, 2026$217.55
Aug 27, 2026$227.98
Aug 27, 2026$227.98
Aug 26, 2026$209.66
Aug 26, 2026$209.66
Aug 25, 2026$213.05
Aug 25, 2026$213.05
Aug 24, 2026$208.48
Aug 24, 2026$208.48
Aug 21, 2026$214.72
Aug 21, 2026$214.75
Aug 20, 2026$216.85
Aug 20, 2026$216.85
Aug 19, 2026$217.56
Aug 19, 2026$217.56
Aug 18, 2026$219.74
Aug 18, 2026$219.74
Aug 17, 2026$225.01
Aug 17, 2026$225.01
Aug 14, 2026$225.16
Aug 14, 2026$225.16
Aug 13, 2026$225.30
Aug 12, 2026$224.09
Aug 11, 2026$217.50
Aug 10, 2026$217.55
Aug 07, 2026$223.96
Aug 06, 2026$218.99
Aug 05, 2026$219.22
Aug 05, 2026$221.72
Aug 04, 2026$211.94
Aug 04, 2026$211.94
Aug 03, 2026$206.64
Aug 03, 2026$206.64
Jul 31, 2026$200.75
Jul 31, 2026$200.75
Jul 30, 2026$195.04
Jul 30, 2026$195.04
Jul 29, 2026$190.01
Jul 29, 2026$190.01

THE INVESTMENT STORY

What is driving the conversation?

AI synthesis

Sep 21, 2026, 20:31 UTC

Nvidia (NVDA) continues to demonstrate dominant operational strength, characterized by near-flawless business fundamental metrics, positive free cash flow, and sustained AI infrastructure demand across major hyperscalers. However, the institutional deterministic model maintains a Neutral long-term reading (Score: 69.51, Confidence: 59%), balancing stellar historical growth against valuation scaling constraints at a multi-trillion dollar enterprise value, macroeconomic uncertainties, and mixed institutional position adjustments (10 additions vs. 14 reductions in recent 13F filings). Near-term technical momentum remains constructive with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average, yet risk remains centered on customer concentration, regulatory scrutiny, and high forward execution expectations against conservative model thresholding.

Generated market interpretation; verify claims and events against original reporting.

Questions to pressure-test the thesis
  • How sensitive is valuation to AI infrastructure spending, margins and customer concentration?
  • What evidence would change the growth or margin assumptions?
  • Do earnings and free cash flow tell the same story?

FROM THESIS TO SETUP

Strategies worth investigating.

Portfolio fit unchecked

Selected by the saved shared assessment. These previews explain the setup; review current quotes and personal suitability in the app.

Long term

Stock ownership

Low IV makes buying options unusually cheap right now.

Main risk
Capital is exposed to a substantial decline in the shares.
What would weaken the idea?
Weaker business fundamentals can invalidate the ownership thesis.

Assessed Sep 21, 2026, 20:31 UTC
Evaluated expiry Jun 17, 2027

Review full setup →

01 / VALUATION

What is priced in?

Market inputs Sep 21, 2026, 19:55 UTC

These ratios describe the saved financial and market inputs. A lower multiple alone does not establish that a stock is undervalued.

NVDA saved valuation metrics
MeasureSaved value
Trailing P/E28.11x
Price / sales18.11x
Price / book34.88x
Price / free cash flowTrailing twelve months43.19x
Free cash flow yieldTrailing twelve months2.32%
EV / revenue18.10x
Input dates, sources & methodology
Financial source
Recorded financial data
Financial inputs dated
Feb 25, 2026
Market inputs dated
Sep 21, 2026, 19:55 UTC
Model evidence coverage
70.0% Input coverage, not probability of success
Valuation model / version
general · V1.4

Ratios are Fidusor calculations or saved provider inputs. The market-data provider is not separately identified in this snapshot. Only available measures are shown; this is not a complete valuation or a fair-value target.

02 / WHAT CHANGED

Follow the evidence over time.

Compared with the saved observation from Sep 21, 2026, 16:00 UTC. These are changes in recorded ratios, not explanations of a price move.

  • Price / sales17.94x → 18.11x
  • Price / book34.55x → 34.88x
  • Price / free cash flow42.79x → 43.19x
  • Free cash flow yield2.34% → 2.32%
  • EV / revenue17.93x → 18.10x

03 / FILING ACTIVITY

Read what was actually reported.

Recent source-linked records in Fidusor's tracked universe. Disclosures describe earlier activity and may not reflect current holdings or intent.

Insider disclosures

Insider filings may include purchases, sales, grants and exercises. Read the transaction details before drawing a conclusion.

No qualifying source-linked records are available in the recent saved coverage. This does not mean no activity occurred.

Reported institutional position changes

13F changes compare quarter-end positions. The period shown is not a trade execution date. Reports omit short positions and do not establish real-time buying.

  • Ron BaronP-Purchase

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗
  • Dan SundheimS-Sale

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗
  • John OverdeckP-Purchase

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗
  • John OverdeckS-Sale

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗
  • Israel EnglanderS-Sale

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗
  • Israel EnglanderP-Purchase

    Report period: Jun 30, 2026 · Filed: Aug 14, 2026

    SEC filing ↗

Up to six records per category, filed within the last 180 days. Refreshing this page does not refresh the underlying feeds.